April Highlights

• VIX hit 60 in April on tariff fears—highest since the pandemic.
• U.S. Q1 GDP fell 0.3%, led by rising imports and lower government spending.
• EMs outperformed, with Mexico and Brazil benefiting from milder U.S. trade policy.

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US Markets

Markets were notably volatile in April, as uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The month opened with the announcement of broad, unexpectedly punitive tariffs by the White House, prompting a swift sell-off in equities and driving the VIX—Wall Street’s gauge of market volatility—to 60, its highest level since the onset of the pandemic.

Despite the initial shock, risk assets partially rebounded later in the month following a more tempered approach from the administration. A 90-day deferral on reciprocal tariffs for countries that had not retaliated, combined with the removal of duties on select electronic goods, helped ease market concerns. Additionally, a softer tone toward China contributed to stabilizing trade expectations and provided a tailwind for both equities and credit markets.

The policy uncertainty also reverberated through fixed income markets. The confidence shock from the so-called “Liberation Day” tariff announcement pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a high of 4.6% on April 11, before retreating to 4.2% by month-end as market anxieties moderated.

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US Economy

Real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, signaling a modest contraction in economic activity. The downturn was primarily driven by a rise in imports—particularly in consumer goods (excluding food and autos) and capital goods (notably technology-related equipment)—which act as a drag on GDP in national accounting terms. Government spending also declined, adding to the overall softness.

On the positive side, the contraction was partially offset by gains in private investment, consumer spending, and exports, indicating that underlying domestic demand remains resilient. While headline GDP turned negative, the composition of the data suggests that the weakness was concentrated in specific areas, rather than signaling a broad-based slowdown¹.

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Global Markets

Despite the sharp escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions, emerging markets demonstrated relative resilience compared to their developed market counterparts. Notably, countries like Mexico and Brazil outperformed, supported by a more measured and less punitive tariff posture from the U.S. administration toward certain trading partners.

That said, the outlook for U.S. trade policy remains highly uncertain and continues to be a source of market volatility. In this environment, maintaining regional diversification within equity allocations remains a prudent risk management strategy, helping to reduce portfolio exposure to policy-driven disruptions in any single market.

The Eurozone economy demonstrated relative strength in early 2025, posting 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q1—outpacing the U.S. during the same period². A key contributor to this outperformance was increased demand from U.S. firms stockpiling European goods in advance of anticipated tariff measures.

However, the subsequent implementation of a 25% U.S. tariff on automobiles, steel, and aluminum has introduced meaningful headwinds. These developments have prompted downward revisions to growth forecasts, with some economists now projecting Eurozone expansion at half the rate previously expected. In response, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its policy rate to 2.25% in April³, signaling a proactive stance aimed at cushioning the region from the potential drag on exports and business investment.