September 2023 Global Markets Update | Savvy
Highlights
- Global markets, both equity and bond, saw losses across the board led by declines in US markets.
- Bond yields continued to rise despite declining core inflation in the US and Europe1
- “Higher for longer” Fed positioning could impact the rest of 2023 and beyond
US Markets
Tech markets dragged down US exchanges with investors moving away from risk assets towards more conservative and commodity linked equity exposures (see the differential between the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones).
These September results have pushed the Dow and US small caps near to a 0% return for the year and plunged micro-caps into the red. The Nasdaq continues to be the best performer for the year.
Save for the Energy sector, all US sectors dropped 3%+ during September. Real Estate and Technology led the way down posting losses of 7.23% and 6.48% respectively. The sole sector to notch a gain for the month was the energy sector, checking in at +2.4%.
These results were a continuation of the choppy few months we have seen in sector equity returns. Despite a poor September, the Technology and Communications sectors still lead the way thus far in 2023, a drastic shift from their 2022 performance.
September factor returns continued to reflect the positive performance in energy stocks over the past two months, seeing momentum outperform other factors by more than 2% for the month. One interesting note is the large underperformance of the dividend factor, a factor often associated with more risk-off investments.
For the year, growth and quality factors continue to lead markets despite poor performance during September. Low volatility has been the clear loser for the year, which is perhaps not a surprise in a year of large swings in the equity markets. As noted above, the dividend factor has started to fade over the past few months and is now close to a 0% return for the year.
Global Markets
Global markets dropped in September, though not at the same rate as US markets. Emerging markets and China outperformed the Euro-zone for the month. One driver of poor Euro-zone performance may be the slowing economic performance in Germany, one of the drivers of the European economy2.
Despite continued poor performance out of China, 2023 continues to be a positive year in global markets, with most markets still posting gains for the year. Since July global equity markets have rolled over to some extent, with most global markets seeing flat to negative performance over the three month period.
Fixed Income Markets
The Federal Reserve maintained the status quo during September but indicated that they expect to raise rates once more in 20233, and they suggested that rates may stay “higher for longer”4 which could have long term impacts on global markets. This new stance from the Fed sent long term rates higher during the month with 20 year treasuries hitting 4.92%.
Global bond yields pushed higher as well during September. This was driven by global central banks aligning with the US Fed on a “higher for longer” policy5.
1 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Inflation_in_the_euro_area
2 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/09/economics-news-us-business-activity-stalls-german-gdp-to-shrink/
3 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/fed-rate-decision-september-2023-.html
4,5 https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/global-central-banks-unite-higher-longer-credo-2023-09-21/
This presentation is for informational purposes only. All opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable. However, Savvy does not independently verify the accuracy of this information and makes no representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
