From Birkins to Baseball Cards to Bordeaux to Jordans: The Economics of Collectibles

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From Birkins to Baseball Cards to Bordeaux to Jordans: The Economics of Collectibles

Joshua Barone

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September 22, 2025

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From Luxury to Legacy

Hermès’ May 2025 price hike—up 6.4% for Birkin bags in the U.S.—is more than a fashion headline.¹ These aren’t handbags anymore; they’re hard assets. A 2016 Time report found that Birkins compounded at 14.2% annually from 1980 to 2015—outpacing both gold and the S&P 500.² Once seen as indulgent accessories, collectibles now compete with traditional investment vehicles.

Culture has already internalized this shift. In Apple TV+’s Your Friends & Neighbors, Jon Hamm plays Andrew “Coop” Cooper, a disgraced hedge fund manager who steals watches, handbags, and art—not for sentiment, but for liquidity. The satire underscores a reality: collectibles aren’t trivial. They’re balance-sheet assets, stores of value, and in some cases, lifeboats amid fiscal distortion.

That same cultural logic resonated in my own childhood. My father’s baseball cards and stamps, filed with precision, were about more than hobbies—they reflected scarcity, memory, and value preservation. My own bagged-and-boarded comic books were early financial lessons: condition matters, provenance matters, and culture drives lasting worth. What was once intuition is now institutional. From Bordeaux vintages to Jordan 1s, collectibles sit alongside equities, bonds, and real estate—especially as policy error and fiscal stress undermine traditional signals.

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The Macro Case for Collectibles

Collectibles don’t just thrive on nostalgia—they respond to macro distortion. When economic signals mislead and monetary policy falls behind the curve, tangible assets begin to look more “real” than government data.

Start with employment. The BLS “Birth/Death” model potentially adds 80,000–100,000 phantom jobs per month based on imputed business formation.³ Yet household surveys show stagnation in full-time work and an uptick in part-time roles—classic signs of labor market strain. These statistical illusions lead the Fed to overtighten into weakness, shaking confidence in equities and bonds.

Inflation is similarly misread. Roughly 34% of CPI is shelter, measured via Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER)—a lagging, survey-based proxy. Even as real-time rent indexes rolled over in 2024, OER stayed elevated, keeping headline inflation overstated and Fed policy overly restrictive.⁴ Once again, the lag between lived experience and policy reaction erodes trust in official indicators.

Add to this the fiscal picture. With deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and debt service now surpassing defense spending, U.S. Treasuries no longer represent the unassailable safe haven they once did.⁵ The bond market is flooded with supply, while foreign buyers are pulling back. Collectibles, by contrast, transact in real time. Prices are set transparently at auction, immune to government revision or statistical massaging. In a world of manipulated narratives, collectibles offer real-world pricing grounded in scarcity—not policy fiction.

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Generational Demand: Baby Boomers and the Wealth Effect

Baby Boomers, born 1946–1964, still control more than half of U.S. household wealth.⁶ As they move into later life, that capital increasingly flows into icons of their youth—Mickey Mantle cards, Ferraris, Rolex Daytonas, Warhol prints. These aren’t investments driven by cash flow; they’re memory capsules. A $12.6 million Mantle rookie isn’t cardboard—it’s cultural permanence.

Sentiment trumps fundamentals. Multiple wealthy buyers chasing a shared nostalgia can create explosive price action. But demographics matter. As Boomers age out, categories like stamps and coins may lose liquidity. Will Gen Z pay $1 million for a Mantle rookie—or chase Pokémon and Yeezys instead? The collectible market will evolve, not evaporate. Allocators must distinguish evergreen icons—Jordan, Patek, Picasso—from generational artifacts.

There’s also identity. “I like cars because there are no awards. You just show up and talk cars for a couple of hours,” said Jay Leno (Hagerty Magazine, May 2022). That ethos explains why collectibles persist—they’re community, not just commerce. Your Friends & Neighbors’ Coop steals from others’ nostalgia because he’s lost his own. The show’s satire is built on a truth: culture defines value.

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Looking Ahead: Gen Z, Millennials, and the New Collectibles

Today’s younger investors are reimagining what “collectible” means. According to Fox Business and L’Officiel (2024), 94% of high-net-worth Gen Z and Millennial investors report interest in collectibles like watches, sneakers, and wine—compared to just 57% of Boomers.

Platforms like StockX, GOAT, and The RealReal have institutionalized this shift. Sneaker collabs between Louis Vuitton and Nike now fetch $30,000+ on resale markets. "It’s just like investing in art or wine—scarcity, demand, and story,” says collector Howie Schwartz (Financial Times, Feb. 2025).

Gen Z blends investment and identity. According to ResearchGate (2024), 39% cite “sentimental value” as a driver for collectible investment—versus only 6% among older cohorts. Storytelling matters more than status. Digital-native investors rely on real-time pricing, social media validation, and fractional ownership platforms that offer both liquidity and volatility.

For allocators, this means rethinking exposure. Streetwear and tech-enabled collectibles now sit beside fine art and coins. But cultural durability—not hype—will separate the enduring assets from passing fads.

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Major Categories: Market Overview at a Glance

Category	Market Size	Key Drivers	Risks
Fine Art & Antiques	$100B+⁷	Provenance, exhibition history, acclaim	Illiquidity, fraud, opaque pricing
Sports Memorabilia	$70B–$100B⁸	Player legacy, grading, nostalgia	Counterfeits, performance-linked pricing
Luxury Goods	$50B+⁹	Brand heritage, celebrity provenance	Superfakes, market cycles
Coins & Currency	$30B–$40B¹⁰	Historical rarity, bullion price	Counterfeits, grading errors
Wine & Whiskey	$20B–$50B¹¹	Vintage, critic score, scarcity	Fraud, storage, regulation
Stamps & Comics	$10B–$20B¹²	Cultural IP, condition, nostalgia	Demographic risk, forgery, low liquidity
Sneakers	Few Billion¹³	Limited drops, collabs, social proof	Fads, superfakes, volatility
Cars, Pop Culture, NFTs	< $20B Combined¹⁴	Cultural cachet, provenance	High costs, thin markets, fraud

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The Dark Side of Collectibles: Scarcity Meets Deception

Where scarcity defines value, fraud inevitably follows. And in collectibles, deception functions like shadow supply—distorting prices just as fiscal deficits distort bond yields.

Art saw this vividly in the Knoedler Gallery scandal (1994–2009), where $80 million in fake Pollocks and Rothkos were sold to collectors like hedge fund manager Pierre Lagrange.¹⁵ “You can’t trust a certificate if there’s no history,” warned NYT’s Patricia Cohen.

In wine, Rudy Kurniawan’s 2013 conviction revealed fake Burgundies blended in a suburban kitchen. “The audacity was breathtaking,” said defrauded billionaire Bill Koch (CBS, 2016). A 2018 Oxford study found 38% of rare Scotch whiskies tested were counterfeit.

The sports world isn’t immune. The FBI’s Operation Bullpen exposed a $100M autograph fraud ring. And in 2025, the “Mister ManCave” scandal uncovered $350M in eBay fakes, including jerseys and trading cards (AP, July 2025).

Luxury faces a wave of “superfakes.” The OECD (2023) estimates counterfeit luxury exceeds $500B globally. “Some fakes are better made than the real thing,” said RealReal’s ex-authenticator Graham Wetzbarger (BoF, 2024). Even blockchain-backed NFTs suffer—90,000 artworks were stolen and minted without consent in 2022.¹⁶

As with government data, trust is everything. When authentication fails, so does price. Whether it’s a forged Mantle rookie or a manipulated jobs report, the market loses faith—and value.

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Performance and Diversification

The case for collectibles isn’t just cultural—it’s financial.

Art, watches, cars, handbags: 7–12% annualized over the past decade (Knight Frank Luxury Index, 2024)
Fine wine: +317% over 20 years (Liv-ex 1000)
Classic cars: 9–10% CAGR since 2005 (HAGI Index)
Birkins: 14.2% CAGR (1980–2015, Time)

Correlations with equities remain low (0.1–0.2), providing true diversification. In past currency crises—from Argentina in the 1980s to Russia in the 1990s—collectibles preserved value when fiat did not.

Risks are real. Illiquidity, storage costs, authentication expense, and generational turnover all pose threats. Yet for allocators attuned to scarcity, provenance, and cultural capital, the asset class provides protection against mispriced monetary risk.

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Conclusion: Scarcity as Strategy

Collectibles aren’t substitutes for equities or bonds. They don’t throw off cash flow, they require specialized storage and authentication, and their liquidity can vanish when sentiment shifts. But in a macro environment riddled with manipulated data, monetary lag, and structural fiscal erosion, they offer something few financial assets can: scarcity you can trust.

When CPI lags real rents, payrolls are later revised away, and GDP growth is inflated by deficit spending, a Mantle rookie’s auction price or a Bordeaux vintage’s rise on Liv-ex often feels more grounded in reality than any BLS release. These markets clear in real time. No seasonal adjustment. No birth/death model. Just transparent price discovery rooted in supply and cultural resonance.

Collectibles persist not because they’re immune to volatility—but because their value is defined by culture, not central banks. And culture, unlike monetary policy, doesn’t pivot every quarter.

As Boomers preserve memory through baseball cards and watches, and Gen Z expresses identity through sneakers and streetwear, allocators must recognize the shift: these aren’t frivolous indulgences. They are signals—of distrust in fiat narratives, of a hunger for permanence, and of a generational redefinition of value.

In Your Friends & Neighbors, Jon Hamm’s Coop doesn’t steal equities or ETFs—he steals Birkins, Pateks, and paintings. Not for liquidity, but for meaning. The satire hits because it’s true: in uncertain times, scarcity isn’t just a store of value—it’s a strategy of resilience.

And in today’s economic fog, that might be the clearest signal of all.

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Joshua Barone

I'm Joshua, a financial advisor from Reno, Nevada. As someone who co-founded and built a trust company and investment advisory firm from the ground up, I’m passionate about sharing the lessons I've learned on my financial journey of 30+ years to guide and empower clients to secure their financial futures. Using active macroeconomic quantitative and tax avoidance strategies, I mitigate risk and help families achieve lasting financial independence, acting as guardians for future generations. Trust, consistency, and accessibility are at the heart of all my long-lasting client relationships.

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Joshua Barone is an investment advisor representative with Savvy Advisors, Inc. (“Savvy Advisors”). Savvy Advisors is an SEC registered investment advisor. Material prepared herein has been created for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation. Information was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but was not verified for accuracy. All investments involve risk, including loss or principal investment.

Ancora West Advisors, LLC dba Universal Value Advisors (“UVA”) is an investment advisor firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Savvy Advisors, Inc. (“Savvy Advisors”) is also an investment advisor firm registered with the SEC. UVA and Savvy are not affiliated or related.

Material prepared herein has been created for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation. Information was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but was not verified for accuracy. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Alternative investments and private placements involve a high degree of risk and can be illiquid due to restrictions on transfer and lack of a secondary trading market. They can be highly leveraged, speculative and volatile, and an investor could lose all or a substantial amount of an investment. Alternative investments may lack transparency as to share price, valuation and portfolio holdings. Prospective investors are advised that investment in a private fund or alternative investment strategy is appropriate only for persons of adequate financial means who have no need for liquidity with respect to their investment and who can bear the economic risk, including the possible complete loss, of their investment.

All advisory services are offered through Savvy Advisors, Inc. (“Savvy Advisors”), an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Savvy Wealth Inc. (“Savvy Wealth”) is a technology company and the parent company of Savvy Advisors. Savvy Wealth and Savvy Advisors are often collectively referred to as “Savvy”. Material prepared herein has been created for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation. Information was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but was not verified for accuracy. All investments involve risk.

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References:

1 https://www.sothebys.com/en/articles/hermes-raises-the-birkin-bag-price-what-you-need-to-know

2 https://time.com/4182246/hermes-birkin-bag-investment-gold/

3 https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm

4 https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.htm

5 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870

6 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1376622/wealth-distribution-for-the-us-generation/

7 https://straitsresearch.com/report/art-market/

8 https://marksparksolutions.com/reports/sports-memorabilia-collectibles-market?

9 https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/luxury-goods-market-103866

10 https://scoop.market.us/digital-currency-statistics/

11 https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/wine-market

12 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stamp-collecting-market-size-scope-opportunities-future-m5eff/

13 https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/sneakers-market-report

14 https://www.rootsanalysis.com/nft-market

15 https://nypost.com/2016/01/24/inside-the-80m-scam-that-rocked-the-art-world-and-hits-courts-this-week/

16 https://www.theguardian.com/global/2022/jan/29/huge-mess-of-theft-artists-sound-alarm-theft-nfts-proliferates

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Appendix: Selected Sources and References

Topic	Source	Details / Notes
Hermès Birkin Price Hike	Reuters, May 2025	Hermès U.S. Birkin bag prices rose +6.4% in May 2025.
Birkin CAGR (1980–2015)	Time, 2016	Estimated 14.2% compound annual growth rate.
Gen Z/Millennial Collectible Demand	Fox Business, L’Officiel, Wealth Management (2024)	94% of HNW Millennials & Gen Z report interest in collectibles.
Sentimental Value (Investor Behavior)	ResearchGate, 2024	39% of Gen Z investors cite "sentimental value" vs. 6% of Boomers.
Sneaker Resale Market	REVOLT, Financial Times, Vogue Business (2024–2025)	Sneaker resale prices for rare collabs hit $30K+; StockX’s luxury segment doubled in 12 months.
Rudy Kurniawan Wine Fraud	CBS 60 Minutes, 2016; Court Records (U.S. v. Kurniawan)	Faked rare wine; convicted in 2013; defrauded millions.
Knoedler Gallery Scandal	New York Times, 2011–2015	$80M+ in forged paintings sold over 15 years.
Art Fraud Quote	Patricia Cohen, NYT, Oct 2011	“You can’t trust a certificate if there’s no history.”
Scotch Counterfeit Study	Oxford University / University of Edinburgh, 2018	21 out of 55 rare Scotch bottles tested were fake.
Operation Bullpen (Sports Fraud)	FBI.gov, ESPN Documentary	$100M+ forged sports memorabilia ring, mainly fake autographs.
“Mister ManCave” eBay Fraud (2025)	Associated Press, July 2025	$350M in fake memorabilia sold online.
Luxury Counterfeit Market	OECD Illicit Trade Report, 2023	$500B in global annual counterfeit trade, incl. luxury goods.
Superfake Quote (Luxury Goods)	Business of Fashion, Feb 2024	Graham Wetzbarger: “Some fakes are better made than the real thing.”
NFT Theft & Wash Trading	AP News, Jan 2023	Over 90,000 artworks stolen/minted as NFTs; wash trading inflated prices on marketplaces like Blur.
Knight Frank Luxury Index	Knight Frank Wealth Report, 2024	Annualized returns (7–12%) for art, cars, wine, watches.
Liv-ex 1000 Wine Index	Liv-ex (London International Vintners Exchange), 2024	+317% total return over 20 years.
HAGI Top Index, 2005–2024	—	Approx. 9–10% CAGR for high-end collectible cars.
Birkins Historical Return	Time, 2016	14.2% annualized growth rate, 1980–2015.
Diversification (UHNW Allocators)	Deloitte Private Wealth Insights, 2024	85% of UHNW individuals hold collectibles as part of asset diversification.
Jay Leno Quote	Hagerty Magazine, May 2022	“There are no awards... you just talk cars.”
Your Friends & Neighbors Reference	Apple TV+, 2025	Jon Hamm’s character steals luxury collectibles for status, not liquidity—reflecting culture as capital.